Bitcoin Will Be Bullish in December, Here's Why

Tokocrypto trader Fyqieh Fachrur said that Bitcoin has a big chance of being bullish again next December. Previously, Bitcoin soared 28.5% during October and throughout November it is estimated to record an increase of 7.18%.

"Analyzing BTC's seasonality, it becomes clear that if October and November close positively, then December tends to follow suit. This trend is nothing new, as historical data shows a similar pattern over the last decade," said Fyqieh, Thursday (30/11/ 2023). 

Fyqieh explained that in 2015, after closing October and November with a positive 33.1% and 19.8%, BTC surged by 14.1% in December. 2016 and 2017 showed even more remarkable increases, with positive returns in December of 29.2% and 38.8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, in 2020, after October and November gains of 28.1% and 42.9%, BTC surged by 47.8% in December, showing a consistent historical trend. 

This pattern is expected to be repeated in 2023. “Statistically, the last quarter of the year has proven to be one of the most profitable quarters for the crypto market. 

"Currently, the fourth quarter of 2023 has ended with an increase of 37.7%, marking the potential eighth time in the last 13 years that it is likely to close on a positive note," said Fyqieh. 

With this historical insight, all eyes are on Bitcoin as the crypto community eagerly awaits whether this trend will continue, making December 2023 an unforgettable month for its fans.

Driving Factors 

Fyqieh explained that there are several driving factors that could strengthen Bitcoin prices in December. The main focus of market players will still be around news updates 

regarding spot Bitcoin ETFs, the Fed's stance and other macroeconomic situations. However, speculation regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF is predicted to remain strong, referring to the potential for approval in January 2024, so that it could have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices by creating FOMO among retail investors.

“In addition, the macroeconomic situation and the Fed's dovish stance will be important factors. "If it is positive that there will be a weakening of the US dollar, investors may be more inclined to allocate funds to risky assets, including Bitcoin," he explained. 

Additionally, Fyqieh highlighted the growth in stablecoin Tether (USDT) market capitalization as another indication that institutional investors are shifting their fiat to stablecoins and will potentially convert them into other cryptos, such as Bitcoin. Then, the recent rise in Bitcoin transaction fees as further evidence of bullishness. 

From technical analysis, BTC price has continuously failed to exceed the resistance zone between US$ 38,825 and US$ 38,942 since breaking through the resistance around US$ 35,400. Additionally, BTC has found a strong support base at the same level as before, indicating a breakout may be on the way.

"BTC is trying to stay above US$ 38,000, as the price is heading towards the high range around US$ 37,991. Therefore, the coming weekend could be very important and may have a big impact on the annual close," concluded Fyqieh.